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S&P 2015 Outlook

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by Gavin in Blog, Market Updates
December 19, 2014 0 comments

This week Standard and Poor’s conducted their annual review of the year and their outlook for 2015. I was fortunate enough to be on the webinar and it is always great value.

Sam Stovall and his team did a great job as usual.

Unfortunately there was no Mark Arbeter this time as I always enjoy listening to his technical outlook for stocks and commodities.

Energy was obviously a big discussion point given the massive price drops we have seen recently. Interesting to note that previous times that energy has had such a large relative decline, the sector has subsequently outperformed to the tune of 16% over the next 2 years. BUT, you have to be patient. Within 1 year the performance is flat to slightly negative. So I think, set a reminder in your calendar about 4-5 months from now to start looking at some energy names again. Until then, just ignore the sector entirely.

In a poll of the audience, 66% of respondents thought oil would be in the $60-80 range in mid-2015.

Oil

Some other data presented was the performance of the S&P 500 before and after the first rate hike of each cycle. Take a look at the results below:

rate hikes

Technically it was all bullish, with all major indices in uptrends with key support levels in tact. Until those levels are broken it should be full steam ahead.

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Options Trading 101 - The Ultimate Beginners Guide To Options

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